Fertility Decline, Baby Boom, and Economic Growth

Abstract

We present new data on fertility, schooling, and child survival in fertility in the United States between 1800 and 2000. Over that period, fertility, children's schooling, and child survival converged across states and regions. Falling child mortality, rising parental education, and increased population density are all associated with falling fertility and rising children's schooling. Our data reveal two baby boom regimes. Regions that experienced large baby booms had smaller increases in child schooling, whereas regions that experienced small baby booms had larger increases. We parameterize a model that appears to fit well the broad trends in our data.

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