Macroeconomic Fluctuations in the Australian Economy*

Abstract

This paper uses an Error Correction Model (ECM) of the Australian economy in an attempt to capture the major causes of fluctuations in the Australian economy over the past 15 years. The model is shocked by each variable in turn and the responses to the shocks are traced out. The model concludes that real wage and domestic demand shocks account for most of the instability seen in Australia in the recent past with little of the variation due to world variable shocks. For comparative purposes these responses are then compared with similar responses applied to a macroeconomic model of the Australian economy.

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