REGIONAL TRANSPORT INVESTMENT PLANNING∗

Abstract

Regional transport investment planning has traditionally assumed that virtually all the relevant information necessary to successful planning is known with complete certainty. More realistically, these investment decisions can be viewed as taking place in an environment where most of the necessary information is not known with any degree of certainty and where unpredictable events might alter the suitability of investment decisions made at a previous point in time. In such a decision-making situation, it is reasonable to select transport investment projects which have the best chance of being good investment choices in many different future operating environments. Though this may result in a less than optimal investment package in the future which is actually realized, it is most unlikely that the chosen investment package will be a poor choice. Strategies for efficient decision making in an environment of uncertainty can be derived by simple modification of models used in studies which assume a complete certainty of outcomes. Several such strategies are illustrated for a road investment planning problem in South Sulawesi, Indonesia.

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