Economic Voting and the Welfare State: A Cross-National Analysis

Alexander C. Pacek · Benjamin Radcliff

161 citations0/0 files storedThe Journal of Politics

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Electoral Systems and Political Participation Social Policy and Reform Studies Fiscal Policies and Political Economy

Abstract

We examine the question of economic voting in the major industrial democracies. Using pooled time series data for 17 nations from 1960 to 1987, we argue that the magnitude and nature of the relationship between economic conditions and the vote depends upon the level of welfare state development. We find that (a) in countries with low to moderate levels of welfare spending, the economy has a more dramatic effect on the vote when things are good than when things are bad, and (b) the economy plays less of a role in states with high levels of spending, regardless of the direction of economic change. The implications for voting behavior, democratic accountability, and welfare policy are discussed.

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References

1960The American Voter. By A. Campbell, P. Converse, W. Miller, and D. Stokes. (New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 1960. Pp. viii, 573. $8.50.)1982Retrospective Voting in American National Elections. By Morris P. Fiorina. (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1981. Pp. xii + 249. $35.00, cloth; $9.95, paper.)1993A Cross-National Analysis of Economic Voting: Taking Account of the Political Context 1966The Responsible Electorate 1971Short-Term Fluctuations in U.S. Voting Behavior, 1896–1964 2017War, Presidents and Public Opinion 1989Economics and elections: the major western democracies 1979Political Control of the Economy.

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2014Macroeconomics, economic crisis and electoral outcomes: A national European pool 1995The Political Economy of Competitive Elections in the Developing World 2006Economic Performance and Political Outcomes: An Analysis of the Turkish Parliamentary and Local Election Results Between 1950 and 2004 2015Reevaluating the sociotropic economic voting hypothesis 2014Visibility, Values, and Voters: The Informational Role of the Welfare State

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