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Predicting World Cup results: Do goals seem more likely when they pay off?
14 references·16 citing·46 second hop
Predicting World Cup results: Do goals seem more likely when they pay off? (2008)Predicting World Cup results: Do goals se…The influence of outcome desirability on optimism. (2007)The influence of outcome desi…All That Glitters: The Effect of Attention and News on the Buying Behavior of Individual and Institutional Investors (2007)All That Glitters: The Effect…All that Glitters: The Effect of Attention and News on the Buying Behavior of Individual and Institutional Investors (2005)All that Glitters: The Effect…Wishful thinking in the prediction of competitive outcomes (2000)Wishful thinking in the predi…The elusive wishful thinking effect (1995)The elusive wishful thinking …Contributions to decision making (1995)Contributions to decision mak…It won't happen to me: Unrealistic optimism or illusion of control? (1993)It won't happen to me: Unreal…The Effect of the Focus of Comparison on Consumer Preferences (1992)The Effect of the Focus of Co…Wishful Thinking—Against All Odds (1991)Wishful Thinking—Against All …Explanation, imagination, and confidence in judgment. (1991)Explanation, imagination, and…The case for motivated reasoning. (1990)The case for motivated reason…Cognitive Processes in Depression (1989)Cognitive Processes in Depres…Unrealistic optimism about susceptibility to health problems (1982)Unrealistic optimism about su…Unrealistic optimism about future life events. (1980)Unrealistic optimism about fu…The desirability bias in predictions under aleatory and epistemic uncertainty (2022)The desirability bias in pred…People express more bias in their predictions than in their likelihood judgments. (2022)People express more bias in t…“To hope was to expect”: The impact of perspective taking and forecast type on wishful thinking (2020)“To hope was to expect”: The …Simultaneous Preferences for Hedging and Doubling Down: Focal Prospects, Background Positions, and Nonconsequentialist Conceptualizations of Uncertainty (2018)Simultaneous Preferences for …Unrealistic comparative optimism: An unsuccessful search for evidence of a genuinely motivational bias (2017)Unrealistic comparative optim…Understanding the coherence of the severity effect and optimism phenomena: Lessons from attention (2016)Understanding the coherence o…Responsibility Judgments of Wins and Losses in the 2013 Chess Championship (2014)Responsibility Judgments of W…Responsibility judgments of wins and losses in the 2013 chess championship (2014)Responsibility judgments of w…Consumer response to uncertain promotions: An empirical analysis of conditional rebates (2013)Consumer response to uncertai…The role of preferences in disagreements over scientific hypothesis: Evidence on cognitive bias in formation of beliefs (2012)The role of preferences in di…Because Hitler did it! Quantitative tests of Bayesian argumentation usingad hominem (2012)Because Hitler did it! Quanti…Automatic Optimism: Why People Assume Their Futures will be Bright (2012)Automatic Optimism: Why Peopl…Good Things Don’t Come Easy (to Mind) (2011)Good Things Don’t Come Easy (…Agency Affects Adults', but not Children's, Guessing Preferences in a Game of Chance (2011)Agency Affects Adults', but n…Hope Over Experience: Desirability and the Persistence of Optimism (2010)Hope Over Experience: Desirab…Fokalizm (vs egocentryzm) a porównawczy optymizm (2010)Fokalizm (vs egocentryzm) a p…Psychological stress and the coping process (1966)Historical Origins of the Health Belief Model (1974)Do Moderators of the Optimistic Bias Affect Personal or Target Risk Estimates? 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this work references cited by second hop

References

  • 1990The case for motivated reasoning.9,014 cited
  • 1980Unrealistic optimism about future life events.4,996 cited
  • 2007All That Glitters: The Effect of Attention and News on the Buying Behavior of Individual and Institutional Investors4,550 cited
  • 2005All that Glitters: The Effect of Attention and News on the Buying Behavior of Individual and Institutional Investors1,140 cited
  • 1982Unrealistic optimism about susceptibility to health problems911 cited
  • 1991Explanation, imagination, and confidence in judgment.561 cited
  • 1993It won't happen to me: Unrealistic optimism or illusion of control?531 cited
  • 1989Cognitive Processes in Depression472 cited
  • 2007The influence of outcome desirability on optimism.287 cited
  • 1992The Effect of the Focus of Comparison on Consumer Preferences135 cited
  • 1991Wishful Thinking—Against All Odds134 cited
  • 1995The elusive wishful thinking effect113 cited
  • 1995Contributions to decision making109 cited
  • 2000Wishful thinking in the prediction of competitive outcomes49 cited

Cited by

  • 2013Consumer response to uncertain promotions: An empirical analysis of conditional rebates

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79 cited
  • 2012Because Hitler did it! Quantitative tests of Bayesian argumentation usingad hominem43 cited
  • 2012Automatic Optimism: Why People Assume Their Futures will be Bright40 cited
  • 2011Good Things Don’t Come Easy (to Mind)30 cited
  • 2017Unrealistic comparative optimism: An unsuccessful search for evidence of a genuinely motivational bias17 cited
  • 2020“To hope was to expect”: The impact of perspective taking and forecast type on wishful thinking17 cited
  • 2016Understanding the coherence of the severity effect and optimism phenomena: Lessons from attention13 cited
  • 2010Hope Over Experience: Desirability and the Persistence of Optimism11 cited
  • 2022People express more bias in their predictions than in their likelihood judgments.7 cited
  • 2018Simultaneous Preferences for Hedging and Doubling Down: Focal Prospects, Background Positions, and Nonconsequentialist Conceptualizations of Uncertainty7 cited
  • 2022The desirability bias in predictions under aleatory and epistemic uncertainty5 cited
  • 2014Responsibility judgments of wins and losses in the 2013 chess championship4 cited
  • 2011Agency Affects Adults', but not Children's, Guessing Preferences in a Game of Chance4 cited
  • 2014Responsibility Judgments of Wins and Losses in the 2013 Chess Championship4 cited
  • 2012The role of preferences in disagreements over scientific hypothesis: Evidence on cognitive bias in formation of beliefs3 cited
  • 2010Fokalizm (vs egocentryzm) a porównawczy optymizm0 cited