MODELING GROWTH (AND LIBERALIZATION) USING SMOOTH TRANSITIONS ANALYSIS

David Greenaway · Stephen J. Leybourne · David Sapsford

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Economic Growth and Productivity Monetary Policy and Economic Impact Global trade and economics

Abstract

Economic liberalization has been a pervasive phenomenon over the last twenty years. Programs have been initiated on the assumption that liberalization promotes economic growth, but the empirical evidence for this is limited. This paper takes a novel approach to modeling growth and structural change as smooth transitions. This allows us to model deterministic change without imposing discrete changes. We use smooth transition analysis to reappraise the time‐series properties of long‐run growth rates in a number of developing countries which have undertaken liberalization. Our results challenge conventional wisdom on both methodological and empirical grounds.

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References

1989The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis 1982Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series 1985Exports, growth and causality in developing countries 1994What does liberalisation do for exports and growth?1989Export expansion, growth and the level of economic development 1991Inward oriented and outward oriented trade strategies 1987Are exports an engine of growth? Another look at the evidence 1991Evaluating the impact of world bank structural adjustment lending: 1980–87

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