The Limits of Ecological Inference: The Case of Split‐Ticket Voting

Abstract

We examine the limits of ecological inference methods by focusing on the case of split‐ticket voting. Burden and Kimball (1998) report that, by using the King estimation procedure for inferring individual‐level behavior from aggregate data, they are the first to produce accurate estimates of split‐ticket voting rates in congressional districts. However, a closer examination of their data reveals that a satisfactory analysis of this problem is more complex than may initially appear. We show that the estimation technique is highly suspect in general and especially unhelpful with their particular data.

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