Articlegreen2003

Estimating mean lifetime

98 citations0/0 files storedProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

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Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management Statistical Distribution Estimation and Applications Global Health Care Issues

Abstract

The life expectancy implied by current age-specific mortality rates is calculated with life table methods that are among the oldest and most fundamental tools of demography. We demonstrate that these conventional estimates of period life expectancy are affected by an undesirable "tempo effect." The tempo effect is positive when the mean age at death is rising and negative when the mean is declining. Estimates of the effect for females in three countries with high and rising life expectancy range from 1.6 yr in the U.S. and Sweden to 2.4 yr in France for the period 1980-1995.

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References

2002Demography, Measuring and Modeling Population Processes 1998On the Quantum and Tempo of Fertility 1998On the quantum and tempo of fertility 1953Age at Marriage and Proportions Marrying 1964The process of demographic translation 1982Age Structure, Growth, Attrition, and Accession: A New Synthesis 1981Estimating the Completeness of Death Registration in a Closed Population 2002How Long Do We Live?

Cited by

2018Longevity and Lifespan Variation by Educational Attainment in Spain: 1960–2015 2011Steep Increase in Best‐Practice Cohort Life Expectancy 2009Variance in Death and Its Implications for Modeling and Forecasting Mortality 2008The quantum and tempo of life-cycle events 2007The Effect of Subjective Survival Probabilities on Retirement and Wealth in the United States 2011The future of death in America 2006The Effect of Subjective Survival Probabilities on Retirement and Wealth in the United States

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