Learning Curves, Production Rate, and Program Costs

Norman Keith Womer

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Management and Optimization Techniques Supply Chain and Inventory Management Capital Investment and Risk Analysis

Abstract

This paper deals with a model of the firm engaged in production to order. Models of this situation frequently conclude that the size of the order and production rate each influence the costs of production. Despite this fact, empirical work on production costs focus almost exclusively on either production rate or the size of the order as explainers of variations in costs. In this paper, a model is developed which is consistent with both these facts. The model permits production rate to be a decision variable in the manufacturer's production planning. The model is solved for an optimal production plan which requires production rate to change throughout the life of the program. The planning situation, where alternative order sizes are considered, is then contrasted with the production situation, where unit costs are related to cumulative output given a production plan. This approach provides guidance for the use of data on past programs in the estimation of cost functions and the evaluation of future production plans.

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References

1971The Economic Implications of Learning by Doing 2015Theory of Cost and Production Functions 1963Reliability of Progress Curves in Airframe Production 1963Production and Cost Functions: An Econometric Survey 1972Learning by Experience as Joint Production

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2013Reviewing the literature on non-parametric dynamic efficiency measurement: state-of-the-art 1997The impact of quality on learning 1994Investment in Knowledge: A Generalization of Learning By Experience 2012Optimizing the supply chain configuration for make-to-order manufacturing 2015The problem with workarounds is that they work: The persistence of resource shortages 2008Putting the learning curve in context 1995Multivariate analysis of the effect of learning and forgetting on product quality 1984Estimating Learning Curves from Aggregate Monthly Data

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