Agricultural Productivity and Macro-Economic Variable Fluctuation in Nigeria

Abstract

The study established the empirical relationship between value of agricultural GDP as the ratio of total GDP (proxy as agricultural productivity) and some key macroeconomic variables in Nigeria. Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test and improved ADF-GLS unit root test conducted on the specified time series showed that all series were integrated of order one. The short-run and long-run elasticity of the agricultural productivity with respect to some key macro-economic variables were determined using the techniques of co-integration and error correction models. The empirical results revealed that in the short and long run periods, the coefficients of real total exports, external reserves, inflation rate and external debt have significant negative relationship with the agricultural productivity in the country; whereas industry’s capacity utilization rate and nominal exchange rate have positive association with agricultural productivity in both periods. However, per capita real GDP influence on the agricultural productivity was positive and significant only in the ECM model. The empirical results were further substantiated by the variance decomposition and impulse response analysis of the dependent variable with respect to changes in the explanatory variables. Results obtained were in line with economic theory. The findings call for appropriate short and long term economic policy packages that should stimulate investment opportunities in the agricultural sector so as to increase agricultural component in the country’s total export. Appropriate policy package to stabilize inflation rate in the country should be implemented. Also incentives should be given to the industrial sector to boast production in order to increase capacity utilization and promote backward integration policy of the sector. Diversification of the country’s economy and a drastic reduction in external debt would boost agricultural productivity in the country.

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