Predicting Divorce among Newlyweds from the First Three Minutes of a Marital Conflict Discussion

Sybil Carrère · John Mordechai Gottman

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Attachment and Relationship Dynamics Family Dynamics and Relationships Counseling, Therapy, and Family Dynamics

Abstract

This study tested the hypothesis that how a discussion of a marital conflict begins--in its first few minutes--is a predictor of divorce. The marital conflict discussion of 124 newlywed couples was coded using the Specific Affect Coding System, and the data were divided into positive, negative, and positive-minus-negative affect totals for five 3-minute intervals. It was possible to predict marital outcome over a 6-year period using just the first 3 minutes of data for both husbands and wives. For husbands this prediction improved as the groups diverged in the remaining 12 minutes; for wives the prediction remained equally powerful for the remaining 12 minutes as it had been in the first 3 minutes.

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References

1978Facial Action Coding System 1959Short Marital-Adjustment and Prediction Tests: Their Reliability and Validity 1997Observing Interaction 1998Predicting Marital Happiness and Stability from Newlywed Interactions 1992Marital processes predictive of later dissolution: Behavior, physiology, and health.1980Marital Interaction: Experimental Investigations 1993The roles of conflict engagement, escalation, and avoidance in marital interaction: A longitudinal view of five types of couples.1993The roles of conflict engagement, escalation, and avoidance in marital interaction: A longitudinal view of five types of couples.

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