Congestion-Based Peak Spreading Model

Abstract

Peak-hour models are necessary to model transportation system changes (HOV lanes) and policy measures (peak-hour pricing) that vary by hour. It is evident that the temporal distribution of travelers has changed over the past several years, and this trend will likely continue in the future. Increasing congestion and the growing need for more flexibility in scheduling activities are thought to be the key motivators of this; the greater use of workplace flextime and the expanded operating hours of many businesses permit it to occur. A peak spreading model that accounts for congestion in determining the proportion of a.m. peak period vehicle traffic that will travel during the peak 1 hr is described. This model assumes that the proportion of the day's travel occurring during the a.m. peak 3 hr will remain stable over time. However, the proportion of the peak period's traffic occurring in the peak 1 hr is expected to vary with the level of congestion and trip length. Models were developed by trip purpose that “flatten” the a.m. peak 1 hr as congestion increases and as the trip length increases. This model was calibrated for the Washington, D.C., area on the basis of a 1987–1988 home interview survey and is presently being validated as part of the Dulles Corridor Transportation Study.

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