A coalition analysis algorithm with application to the Zimbabwe conflict

Abstract

An algorithm is developed for considering coalitions when formally analyzing a given conflict. The new methodology is employed for studying the 1979 Lancaster Peace Talks concerning the civil war in Zimbabwe. Following an historical description of the Zimbabwe controversy, the conflict is analyzed using an improved metagame stability analysis algorithm. A comprehensive procedure is then presented for incorporating coalition considerations into the stability analysis of the conflict. Furthermore, a metric is introduced to determine when coalitions are most likely to form. The results of the study are in agreement with the actual historical events.

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