Analysis on Bus Choice Behavior of Car Owners based on Intent – Ji’nan as an Example

Abstract

This paper establishes MNL and joint SP-RP MNL models to analyze the bus choice behavior of car owners based on disaggregate utility theory in middle-sized cities of China. The preference survey of travel behavior for car traveler groups is conducted in Ji’nan city. Travel time, bus comfort, parking fee and fuel cost are chosen as four important factors to analyze the behavior intent of car traveler groups who will switch to public transit. The research finds that car traveler groups are more sensitive to the change of parking fee and fuel cost and not sensitive to the change of bus comfort. The sensitivity to the bus travel time for the car traveler groups decreases as the bus travel time increases. The research conclusions will provide the base of decision – making for transportation policy and enhancing the bus share ratio.

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