Framework for Analyzing Spatial Contagion between Financial Markets

Brendan O. Bradley · Murad S. Taqqu

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Financial Risk and Volatility Modeling Market Dynamics and Volatility Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis

Abstract

We present an alternative definition of contagion between financial markets, which is based on a measure of local correlation. We say that there is contagion from market X to market Y if there is more dependence between X and Y when X is doing badly than when X exhibits typical performance, that is, if there is more dependence at the loss tail distribution of X than at its center. The dependence is measured by the local correlation between X and Y. This yields a test for contagion, which does not require the specification of crisis and normal periods. As such, it avoids difficulties associated with testing for correlation breakdown, such as hand picking subsets of the data, and it provides a better understanding of the degree of dependence between financial markets.

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References

2002No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements 2001Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets 1952Safety First and the Holding of Assets 2002Correlation and Dependence in Risk Management: Properties and Pitfalls 2001Correlation and Dependence 1997Pitfalls in Tests for Changes in Correlations 1977Portfolio choice and equilibrium in capital markets with safety-first investors 2003Financial Risk and Heavy Tails

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