Inflation Persistence, Monetary Policy, and the Great Moderation

Charles T. Carlstrom · Timothy Stephen Fuerst · Matthias O. Paustian

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Monetary Policy and Economic Impact Market Dynamics and Volatility Economic theories and models

Abstract

There is growing evidence that the empirical Phillips curve within the United States has changed significantly since the early 1980s. In particular, inflation persistence has declined sharply. This paper demonstrates that this decline is consistent with a standard dynamic New Keynesian (DNK) model in which: (i) the variability of technology shocks has declined and (ii) the central bank more aggressively responds to inflation.

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References

2005Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy 2000Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory*1993Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change With Unknown Change Point 2004Interest and Prices 2009Inflation-Gap Persistence in the US 2006Optimal Monetary Policy under Commitment with a Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates 2008The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics 2003Speed Limit Policies: The Output Gap and Optimal Monetary Policy

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