Data Revision, Reconstruction, and Prediction: An Application to Inventory Investment

E. Philip Howrey

87 citations0/0 files storedThe Review of Economics and Statistics

No readable copy stored yet — this record is metadata only.

No open-access location is known for this record yet.

Literature note Cite in a project Citation map

Forecasting Techniques and Applications Monetary Policy and Economic Impact Statistical and numerical algorithms

Abstract

A bstract-This paper uses state space methods to examine the extent to which forecast errors in inventory investment, especially at turning points, may be due to measurement error. It is found that while quarterly observations on both inventory and sales are subject to substantial revision, these revisions have on average only a modest impact on the accuracy of inventory investment forecasts. However, there is evidence that the variance of inventory measurement error increases with the rate of change of inventory stocks. This implies that substantial improvements in forecast accuracy, especially at turning points, are potentially available if the preliminary and revised data are used optimally.

Paper brief

Loading…

Cite this work

Citation unavailable for this work.

BibTeX RIS CSL-JSON

No public copy is stored for this record, so only the metadata is cited.

Citations in this library

Citation map →

Stored only when both papers are in the corpus — 87 citations exist upstream.

References

1970Introduction to Stochastic Control Theory 1981Retail Inventory Behavior and Business Fluctuations 1961Manufacturers' Inventories, Sales Expectations, and the Acceleration Principle 1976Inventory Behavior in Durable-Goods Manufacturing: The Target-Adjustment Model 1978The Use of Preliminary Data in Econometric Forecasting

Cited by

2010VAR Estimation and Forecasting When Data Are Subject to Revision 1987Ain't Behavin': Forecast Errors and Measurement Errors in Early GNP Estimates 2005Preliminary data and econometric forecasting: an application with the Bank of Italy Quarterly Model 2011Multivariate singular spectrum analysis for forecasting revisions to real-time data 2012REAL‐TIME FORECASTING OF INFLATION AND OUTPUT GROWTH WITH AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELS IN THE PRESENCE OF DATA REVISIONS 2013Forecasting by factors, by variables, by both or neither?2007The future of macroeconomic forecasting: Understanding the forecasting process 2001Creating high‐frequency national accounts with state‐space modelling: a Monte Carlo experiment

Explore the map →

Papers that cite the same references — the relational fallback while embeddings are still backfilling.

Imported from OpenAlex (CC0) — nothing here is generated.