Value as a Determiner of Subjective Probability

Abstract

This study explored the manner in which the desirability of an event influences its judged probability. Ss gave probability estimates for each of 5 events, only one of which could occur. Monetary payoffs, ranging from lose $5 to win $5, were contingent upon which event did occur. Desirability was found to bias probability estimates in a complex manner which varied systematically between Ss and between estimation trials. In general, it made estimates less reasonable. Rewards for accuracy did not reduce value biases. Instead, they encouraged ``risk-reducing pessimism.'' Individual differences were an important source of variance. Some Ss were consistently optimistic. Others were quite pessimistic.

Cite this work

No public copy is stored for this record, so only the metadata is cited.

Stored only when both papers are in the corpus — 79 citations exist upstream.

Papers that cite the same references — the relational fallback while embeddings are still backfilling.