Crisis Decision Making Reconsidered

Abstract

Serious problems may be found in Herek, Janis, and Huth's 1987 study of the relationship between the quality of the decision-making process in an international crisis and the desirability of its outcome. A closer look at the best understood and most thoroughly documented case used in their study (the Cuban missile crisis of 1962) reveals the chief cause of those problems to be the use of sources that appear to be incomplete in the light of new evidence. Both the conclusions of the Herek, Janis, and Huth study and the criteria with which they assess the quality of a decision-making process are called into question.

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