Consumption and uncertainty: a panel analysis in Italian Regions

Mario Menegatti

20 citations0/0 files storedApplied Economics Letters

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Monetary Policy and Economic Impact Financial Literacy, Pension, Retirement Analysis Economic Theory and Policy

Abstract

This work tests precautionary saving theory in Italian regions, examining the relationship between consumption growth and income uncertainty in a panel of five-year averages in the period 1981 to 2000. The analysis used two different measures for income uncertainty. The first is a naive measure given by the variance of GDP growth rates while the second is a more sophisticated one obtained by computing the conditional variance by means of the expectation of GDP growth. This expectation is obtained by using the best ARMA process for each region. The results obtained confirm the importance of the precautionary saving motive in consumption decisions.

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References

1989Consumption, Income, and Interest Rates: Reinterpreting the Time Series Evidence 1991Saving and Liquidity Constraints 1968Saving and Uncertainty: The Precautionary Demand for Saving 1992The Buffer-Stock Theory of Saving: Some Macroeconomic Evidence 1972Consumption decisions under uncertainty 1993How Prudent are Consumers?1992Earnings uncertainty and precautionary saving 1998On the Importance of the Precautionary Saving Motive

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