The euro’s effect on trade

Abstract

This study argues that the euro area more than doubled trade among its members, but this process was delayed and fitful. The estimates in this article are close to those obtained by Rose and Frankel, despite the usage of methods developed by their critics. Furthermore, the euro area has increased the trade of its Mediterranean members more than the trade of other member states; it also raised trade with non-members by some 35%. The article innovates mainly by constructing a more appropriate control group to the euro area, applying better controls for the Single Market, estimating differences of trade, studying the effects of the euro on different member states, using quantile regression and naturally by relying on more recent data.

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