The Economy and Political Support: The Canadian Case

Abstract

How important are economic conditions in determining political support? Is voting a simple referendum on economic outcomes? Or must voters perceive critical party differences over economic policy before the economy has political impact? Although these questions have received considerable attention in the last decade, analysts have nonetheless overlooked the Canadian system, an ideal one in which to test propositions concerning the importance of public beliefs about party policy differences and to examine the economy's role in determining popularity of social democratic parties. This paper analyzes the economic components of popular support for the Canadian government and political parties between 1954 and 1979 and in doing so addresses a number of these issues. Essentially, our findings suggest Canadians hold the federal government responsible for economic conditions. They find no critical economic policy differences between the Liberal and Conservative parties, however, and support for these parties is relatively unaffected by economic conditions. In contrast, Canadian voters believe the New Democratic Party (NDP) offers a clear economic alternative, and their support for this party is influenced by economic conditions as a result. Finally, we find no evidence that deteriorating economic conditions prompt Canadians to withdraw their support from the major political parties. The surprisingly large numbers of Canadians who routinely refuse to designate party allegiance do not appear to be expressing alienation from the party system as a protest against economic conditions.

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