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The role of representation in Bayesian reasoning: Correcting common misconceptions
16 references·16 citing·36 second hopsampled
The role of representation in Bayesian reasoning: Correcting common misconceptions (2007)The role of representation in Bayesian re…Gut feelings: the intelligence of the unconscious (2008)Gut feelings: the intelligenc…SSL: A Theory of How People Learn to Select Strategies. (2006)SSL: A Theory of How People L…Fast and Frugal Heuristics: The Tools of Bounded Rationality (2004)Fast and Frugal Heuristics: T…Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making (2004)Blackwell Handbook of Judgmen…Naive and Yet Enlightened: From Natural Frequencies to Fast and Frugal Decision Trees (2003)Naive and Yet Enlightened: Fr…Frequency versus probability formats in statistical word problems (2000)Frequency versus probability …Communicating Statistical Information (2000)Communicating Statistical Inf…Overcoming difficulties in Bayesian reasoning: A reply to Lewis and Keren (1999) and Mellers and McGraw (1999). (1999)Overcoming difficulties in Ba…Naive probability: A mental model theory of extensional reasoning. (1999)Naive probability: A mental m…The empirical case for two systems of reasoning. (1996)The empirical case for two sy…How to improve Bayesian reasoning without instruction: Frequency formats. (1995)How to improve Bayesian reaso…The Adaptive Decision Maker (1994)The Adaptive Decision MakerTimid Choices and Bold Forecasts: A Cognitive Perspective on Risk Taking (1993)Timid Choices and Bold Foreca…The Adaptive Decision Maker (1993)The Adaptive Decision MakerThe base-rate fallacy in probability judgments (1980)The base-rate fallacy in prob…Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness (1972)Subjective probability: A jud…The Effects of “Time” and “Probability” Formats on Risk Perception and Decision‐Making About Long‐Term Hazards (2026)The Effects of “Time” and “Pr…Evidencing How Experience and Problem Format Affect Probabilistic Reasoning Through Interaction Analysis (2019)Evidencing How Experience and…Biases (2017)BiasesAsking better questions: How presentation formats influence information search. (2017)Asking better questions: How …Another chance for good reasoning (2017)Another chance for good reaso…Toward an ecological analysis of Bayesian inferences: how task characteristics influence responses (2015)Toward an ecological analysis…Natural frequencies facilitate diagnostic inferences of managers (2015)Natural frequencies facilitat…The natural frequency hypothesis and evolutionary arguments (2014)The natural frequency hypothe…The effects of mental steps and compatibility on Bayesian reasoning (2014)The effects of mental steps a…The effects of mental steps and compatibility on Bayesian reasoning (2014)The effects of mental steps a…Incentives, expertise, and medical decisions: Testing the robustness of natural frequency framing. (2013)Incentives, expertise, and me…The effect of numeracy and affect on adherence to rational choice principles in decisions under risk (2012)The effect of numeracy and af…Sets or frequencies? How to explain the facilitation effect in conditional probability problems (2010)Sets or frequencies? How to e…EL DEBATE ACERCA DEL EFECTO FACILITADOR EN PROBLEMAS DE PROBABILIDAD CONDICIONAL: ¿UN CASO DE EXPERIMENTACIÓN CRUCIAL? (2010)EL DEBATE ACERCA DEL EFECTO F…Positioning fast and frugal decision making the dual process theory:new insights into the cognitive mechanisms of entrepreneurial risktaking (2009)Positioning fast and frugal d…Heuristic thinking and human intelligence: a commentary on Marewski, Gaissmaier and Gigerenzer (2009)Heuristic thinking and human …Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1975)The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice (1981)Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk (1988)Climate change and journalistic norms: A case-study of US mass-media coverage (2007)On seeing human: A three-factor theory of anthropomorphism. (2007)Why Heuristics Work (2008)Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. (1984)The base rate fallacy reconsidered: Descriptive, normative, and methodological challenges (1996)Experimental practices in economics: A challenge for psychologists? (2000)Chapter 12: Interpreting results and drawing conclusions (2011)Interpreting results and drawing conclusions (2019)Belief in the law of small numbers. (1971)Comparison of Bayesian and regression approaches to the study of information processing in judgment (1971)Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability (1973)Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty (1992)Representativeness Revisited: Attribute Substitution in Intuitive Judgment (2002)A perspective on judgment and choice: Mapping bounded rationality. (2003)Maps of Bounded Rationality: Psychology for Behavioral Economics (2003)On the psychology of prediction. (1973)Judged frequency of lethal events. (1978)Conservatism in human information processing (1982)Norm theory: Comparing reality to its alternatives. (1986)Volume, Volatility, Price, and Profit When All Traders Are Above Average (1998)The Principles of Psychology (1891)Risk as feelings. (2001)The weirdest people in the world? (2010)Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1974)Individual differences in reasoning: Implications for the rationality debate? (2000)Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment (2004)Dual-Processing Accounts of Reasoning, Judgment, and Social Cognition (2007)Marketing in Hypermedia Computer-Mediated Environments: Conceptual Foundations (1996)Determinants of Perceived Ease of Use: Integrating Control, Intrinsic Motivation, and Emotion into the Technology Acceptance Model (2000)Construal-level theory of psychological distance. (2010)The Synthetic Situation: Interactionism for a Global World (2009)Risk Communication, Public Engagement, and Climate Change: A Role for Emotions (2012)The role of teachers’ motivation and mindsets in predicting a (de)motivating teaching style in higher education: a circumplex approach (2020)
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References

  • 1972Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness4,876 cited
  • 1996The empirical case for two systems of reasoning.3,855 cited
  • 1993The Adaptive Decision Maker3,507 cited
  • 1994The Adaptive Decision Maker3,310 cited
  • 1995How to improve Bayesian reasoning without instruction: Frequency formats.2,131 cited
  • 1993Timid Choices and Bold Forecasts: A Cognitive Perspective on Risk Taking2,041 cited
  • 1980The base-rate fallacy in probability judgments1,184 cited
  • 2004Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making961 cited
  • 2008Gut feelings: the intelligence of the unconscious723 cited
  • 2000Communicating Statistical Information650 cited
  • 2006SSL: A Theory of How People Learn to Select Strategies.625 cited
  • 2004Fast and Frugal Heuristics: The Tools of Bounded Rationality490 cited
  • 1999Naive probability: A mental model theory of extensional reasoning.305 cited
  • 2000Frequency versus probability formats in statistical word problems216 cited
  • 1999Overcoming difficulties in Bayesian reasoning: A reply to Lewis and Keren (1999) and Mellers and McGraw (1999).144 cited
  • 2003

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Naive and Yet Enlightened: From Natural Frequencies to Fast and Frugal Decision Trees
116 cited

Cited by

  • 2017Asking better questions: How presentation formats influence information search.35 cited
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  • 2015Toward an ecological analysis of Bayesian inferences: how task characteristics influence responses19 cited
  • 2009Heuristic thinking and human intelligence: a commentary on Marewski, Gaissmaier and Gigerenzer16 cited
  • 2013Incentives, expertise, and medical decisions: Testing the robustness of natural frequency framing.14 cited
  • 2017Another chance for good reasoning12 cited
  • 2010EL DEBATE ACERCA DEL EFECTO FACILITADOR EN PROBLEMAS DE PROBABILIDAD CONDICIONAL: ¿UN CASO DE EXPERIMENTACIÓN CRUCIAL?9 cited
  • 2019Evidencing How Experience and Problem Format Affect Probabilistic Reasoning Through Interaction Analysis9 cited
  • 2014The natural frequency hypothesis and evolutionary arguments3 cited
  • 2026The Effects of “Time” and “Probability” Formats on Risk Perception and Decision‐Making About Long‐Term Hazards1 cited
  • 2017Biases1 cited
  • 2012The effect of numeracy and affect on adherence to rational choice principles in decisions under risk0 cited
  • 2010Sets or frequencies? How to explain the facilitation effect in conditional probability problems0 cited
  • 2009Positioning fast and frugal decision making the dual process theory:new insights into the cognitive mechanisms of entrepreneurial risktaking0 cited