The Causal Relation between War and Scientific Discovery

Abstract

Using cross-lagged correlation analyses as the basis for causal inference, the relationship between war and scientific discovery and invention was explored in seven European nations. Measures of war duration and scientific productivity were generated using 14 or 16 quarter-century periods, or "generations," as the unit of analysis within each nation. The analyses indicated statistically significant associations for England and Russia (war encouraging science in the next generation), Spain (war discouraging science in the next generation), Holland (science discouraging war in the next generation), and France (war and science correlating positively in the same generation), whereas Germany and Italy exhibited no significant relationships. Discussion of the causal inconsistencies led to the suggestion that future research separately analyze different scientific disciplines and their respective relations to various categories of war.

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