Forecasting travel time variability

Abstract

In order to incorporate travel time variability in appraisal, methods are needed to predict effects on travel time variability of investments and polity measures. The present study is a first step towards developing such a method. Using data from Stockholm’s automatic camera system for travel time measurements, a relationship is estimated between the standard deviation, the congestion level and various link characteristics. The relationship has been used in a cost-benefit analysis of the planned Stockholm bypass, yielding added benefits of around 15% of the conventional travel time benefits. Moreover, it is shown that that the travel time distribution tends to be less skewed for higher congestion levels, and that the covariance between adjacent links seems to be relatively small. The latter results is important since it makes it possible to approximate route variances as the sum of link variances.

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