The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Shocks on an Oil-exporting Economy

Abstract

We estimate the effects of unexpected changes in oil prices on output for the case of Venezuela, an oil-exporting economy.Following Hamilton (2003), Lee et al. (1995), andMork (1989), we estimate measures of oil shocks and determine the effect of these shocks on the Venezuelan economy.Our results suggest that oil shocks have had positive and significant effects on output growth in Venezuela during the period 1984:1-2008:3.In line with previous findings for other countries, our results suggest that the Venezuelan economy is more responsive to increases in oil prices than to unexpected decreases.Our results are robust to an alternative measure of oil price shocks derived by using Kilian's (2009) exogenous OPEC oil production shock series.

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