Technical Analysis in the Foreign Exchange Market: A Layman's Guide

Christopher J. Neely

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Financial Markets and Investment Strategies Financial Risk and Volatility Modeling Stock Market Forecasting Methods

Abstract

Economists have traditionally been skeptical of the value of technical analysis, the use of past price behavior to guide trading decisions in asset markets. Instead, they have relied on the logic of the efficient market hypothesis.

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References

1970EFFICIENT CAPITAL MARKETS: A REVIEW OF THEORY AND EMPIRICAL WORK*1970Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work 1992A Simple Model of Herd Behavior 1990Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets 2012The Econometrics of Financial Markets 1995The Limits of Arbitrage 1980On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets 1997The Econometrics of Financial Markets

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2006Technical Trading-Rule Profitability, Data Snooping, and Reality Check: Evidence from the Foreign Exchange Market 2006Can Markov Switching Models Predict Excess Foreign Exchange Returns?2006The Adaptive Markets Hypothesis: Evidence from the Foreign Exchange Market 2014Technical Analysis and Individual Investors 1998Technical Analysis and the Profitability of U.S. Foreign Exchange Intervention 2004Reducing the Risk at Small Community Banks: Is it Size or Geographic Diversification that Matters?*

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