Effective traffic management based on bounded rationality and indifference bands

Abstract

Constrained cognitive abilities cause imperfections in drivers’ choice behaviour and appear largely systematic and predictable. This study introduces the concept of ‘effective control space’ to build upon this knowledge as an opportunity to increase the effectiveness of Dynamic Traffic Management (DTM). Within the control space boundaries it is assumed that drivers do not act upon the effects of DTM measures, they behave as being indifferent to them. This study debates that: (i) drivers’ ability to detect changes in attributes of their trip or the performance of a traffic system is limited, (ii) drivers make mistakes in estimating the value of such changes and (iii) drivers apply a great diversity of choice patterns but do not necessary adapt their choice. Hence, for some DTM measures to be effective effects should not exceed the control space boundaries, whereas other DTM measures need to give drivers an incentive that exceeds these boundaries. Knowledge on the effective control space may support road authorities to operationalise their measures most effectively. With the theories of indifference bands and decision‐making as starting point a theoretical and conceptual framework are provided, supported by a numerical example to demonstrate how application can steer a system towards its optimal state.

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