Time-varying Nairu and real interest rates in the Euro Area

Camille Logeay · Silke Tober

21 citations0/0 files storedRePEc: Research Papers in Economics

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Monetary Policy and Economic Impact European Monetary and Fiscal Policies Unemployment and Economic Growth

Abstract

This paper analyses the Nairu in the Euro Area and the influence that monetary policy had on its development. Using the Kalman-filter technique we find that the Nairu has varied considerably since the early seventies. The Kalman-filter technique is applied here for the first time using explicit exogenous variables. In particular real interest rates were found to explain a quarter of the increase in the Nairu between 1980 and 1995. This indicates the possibility of a long-run non-superneutrality of monetary policy.

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References

1999The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective 1986Equilibrium Unemployment as a Worker Discipline Device 1992Unemployment: macroeconomic performance and the labour market 1998Monetary policy rules in practice 2000The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: the Aggregate Evidence 1997The Time-Varying NAIRU and its Implications for Economic Policy 1997Reflections on the Natural Rate Hypothesis 2003An Area Wide Model (Awm) for the Euro Area

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2006Labor market regimes and the effects of monetary policy

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