Article1993

BUSINESS CYCLE ASYMMETRY: A DEEPER LOOK

580 citations0/0 files storedEconomic Inquiry

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Monetary Policy and Economic Impact Economic Theory and Policy Unemployment and Economic Growth

Abstract

This paper distinguishes two types of asymmetry in business cycles: deepness and steepness. Deepness is defined as the characteristic that troughs are further below trend than peaks are above. Most previous research has focused exclusively on steepness, which refers to cycles in which contractions are steeper than expansions. A test for deepness is proposed and applied to U.S. post‐war quarterly unemployment, real GNP, and industrial production. Evidence of deepness is found for unemployment and industrial production, while the evidence for real GNP is weaker. Previous evidence of steepness in unemployment is confirmed.

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References

1936The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money.1989A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle 1989The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis 1982Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series 1981A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the ‘business cycle’1984Are Economic Time Series Asymmetric over the Business Cycle?1940A Model of the Trade Cycle 1994Asymmetric Price Adjustment and Economic Fluctuations

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