Article2011

A new fuzzy evidential reasoning method for risk analysis and control of a liquefied natural gas carrier system

Thaddeus Chidiebere Nwaoha · Zaili Yang · Junlin Wang · Stephen Bonsall

16 citations0/0 files storedProceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers Part M Journal of Engineering for the Maritime Environment

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Risk and Safety Analysis Multi-Criteria Decision Making Structural Integrity and Reliability Analysis

Abstract

In this research, the safety/risk level of a liquefied natural gas (LNG) carrier system is investigated through the application of a fuzzy evidential reasoning (FER) method to uncertainty treatment of its failure modes. A fuzzy set manipulation formula with multiple parameters such as consequence severity, failure consequence probability, and failure likelihood is used to assess the safety/risk levels of failure modes of the system. Such failure estimations are synthesized to evaluate the whole system’s safety/risk level using an evidential reasoning (ER) approach. Risk control options (RCOs) are developed for reduction/control of high-risk level of the system. The best RCO, which is the one with the highest preference degree, is used to improve the safety level of the system.

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1994An evidential reasoning approach for multiple-attribute decision making with uncertainty 2007Analysing the risk of LNG carrier operations 1995Safety analysis and synthesis using fuzzy sets and evidential reasoning 2006Enabling a Powerful Marine and Offshore Decision‐Support Solution Through Bayesian Network Technique 2000Risk based methodology for safety improvements in ports 2005Engineering System Safety Analysis and Synthesis Using the Fuzzy Rule-based Evidential Reasoning Approach 1996Multi-person and multi-attribute design evaluations using evidential reasoning based on subjective safety and cost analyses 2004Use of Advances in Technology for Maritime Risk Assessment

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