This paper discusses a geographical information system (GIS)-based technique to measure the recreational potential of natural tourist destinations. The technique was developed for a study area in western Victoria, Australia, known as the Grampians National Park (GNP), a popular natural tourist destination. Regression modelling was used to develop a set of predictors of scenic attractiveness derived from data collected via questionnaire administered to a group of university students. The derived output was then overlaid with ‘recreational opportunity potential’ generated for the region. In the final stage, a spatial model of ‘recreational potential’ was developed from output maps over the entire geographical area. The study found that the areas with high recreational potential are concentrated around more popular walking tracks in the Wonderland Ranges near Halls Gap in the north-east sector. However, other underdeveloped areas of high recreational potential are identified and suggested as alternative strategic sites to ease potential pressure developing around heavily used walking tracks. Despite the limited sample group, the developed technique offers park managers a method for predicting recreational opportunities.
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