Scenarios for the future of the South African wine industry

Abstract

Scenarios are a strategic tool that can stimulate strategic thinking, generate strategic foresight, provide a basis for testing existing strategies, explore and understand complexities of the future. In so doing they can aid decision making and contribute to preparation for the future. As such, this research paper used scenarios to explore a number of plausible futures for the South African Wine Industry in order to stimulate strategic thinking and conversations, pave the way for new ideas and approaches and encourage innovation. This can prepare both the industry and wine producers for possible challenges that they may face in the future. The scenario development process started with an extensive exploration of the existing industry, which included industry trends and patterns as well as factors within the external environment that influence the strategic landscape. Three key driving forces were identified in the external environment which could potentially have the largest impact on the future of the industry. These are impacts of climate change, local industry consolidation and buying power changes. Five scenarios for the South African Wine Industry were developed for the year 2025 based on these driving forces. These scenarios reflected these key driving forces under different circumstances, which provided different perspectives related to their impacts. The scenarios introduced alternative futures which range from one that envisages a consolidated local wine industry which focuses on the export market as a result of the opportunities presented by extreme weather events resulting from global climate change, to a scenario that is characterised by negligible changes in the structure of the local industry and where high buying power changes the industry dynamics and key success factors. A set of main findings relating to each scenario was formulated. These findings were examined in order to identify implications and make recommendations that could be useful to consider and aid strategy development for the industry, as well as for the benefit of individual wine producers. Key findings related to the impact of these key driving forces as well as the risks and potential opportunities that they could present for the industry under certain circumstances.

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