EXPORT INSTABILITY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH*

Peter Β. Kenen · Constantin S. Voivodas

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Economic Theory and Policy Monetary Policy and Economic Impact Global trade and economics

Abstract

SUMMARY Does export instability interfere with economic development? Work by McBean answers in the negative. He finds no systematic relationship between instability and economic growth. This paper asks three questions about McBean's work: (1) Has he measured the relevant variables appropriately? (2) Were special factors at work in the period he studied (1950‐58) ? (3) Was his sample of countries representative? It presents a broader statistical analysis, using a different index of instability, two decades of data, and more countries. In general, the findings do not contradict McBean. But calculations using different time periods (1950‐66 and 1956‐67) do produce some evidence of interference. Furthermore, the paper finds one new relationship—a strong inverse connection between instability and the level of investment in developing countries.

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References

1967Distributed Lags: A Survey 1969First Order Autoregression: Inference, Estimation, and Prediction 1965The Demand for International Reserves 1970Export Instability and Economic Structure 1967Export Instability and Economic Development.

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1991Terms of trade fluctuations and economic growth in developing economies 1984Chapter 11 Trade policies in developing countries 1999On the Economic Vulnerability of Low Income Countries (1983Export fluctuations and economic growth 2008Export Growth, Export Instability, Investment and Economic Growth in India: a Time Series Analysis 1984From an Export-led to an Import-substituting Economy: Chile 1914–39 1987Export Instability in Less Developed Countries: Consequences and Causes 1992Export instability and the domestic economy: Questions of causality

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