Applying fuzzy techniques to cash flow analysis

Abdelhalim Boussabaine · Taha Elhag

86 citations0/0 files storedConstruction Management and Economics

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Construction Project Management and Performance Multi-Criteria Decision Making Capital Investment and Risk Analysis

Abstract

Construction managers are interested in the direction of movement of cash flow at valuation periods rather than its forecast value, and fuzzy set theory applied to decision making might help in this process. Fuzzy models are particularly suited to making decisions involving new technologies where uncertainties inherent in the situation are complex. The problem of healthy cash flow at valuation periods relates to the proper estimation of cash in and out flows and project progress. The paper presents an alternative approach to cash flow analysis for construction projects. This project is based on the assumption that cash flow at particular valuation stages of a project is ambiguous. The paper discusses the weaknesses of existing methods for cash flow and establishes the need for an alternative approach. Using an example of 30 cash flow curves, the advantage of fuzzy cash flow analysis is demonstrated. Results of the analysis are presented and discussed. The model can be used to analyse the cash flow curve of projects at any progress period to make sure it is reasonable.

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References

1965Fuzzy sets 1996Fuzzy sets 1981Multiple Attribute Decision Making: Methods and Applications 1980Fuzzy Sets and Systems - Theory and Applications 1992Fuzzy Multiple Attribute Decision Making 1985A review of fuzzy set aggregation connectives 1985Ranking fuzzy numbers with maximizing set and minimizing set 1998A neural networks approach for cost flow forecasting

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