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Inference from Streaks in Random Outcomes: Experimental Evidence on Beliefs in Regime Shifting and the Law of Small Numbers
16 references·16 citing·27 second hopsampled
Inference from Streaks in Random Outcomes: Experimental Evidence on Beliefs in Regime Shifting and the Law of Small Numbers (2009)Inference from Streaks in Random Outcomes…A Survey of Behavioral Finance (2015)A Survey of Behavioral FinanceThe Gambler’s Fallacy and the Hot Hand: Empirical Data from Casinos (2005)The Gambler’s Fallacy and the…Rational Momentum Effects (2002)Rational Momentum EffectsInference by Believers in the Law of Small Numbers (2002)Inference by Believers in the…Competing Theories of Financial Anomalies (2000)Competing Theories of Financi…Bad News Travels Slowly: Size, Analyst Coverage, and the Profitability of Momentum Strategies (2000)Bad News Travels Slowly: Size…A Unified Theory of Underreaction, Momentum Trading, and Overreaction in Asset Markets (1999)A Unified Theory of Underreac…Investor Psychology and Security Market Under‐ and Overreactions (1998)Investor Psychology and Secur…A model of investor sentiment1We are grateful to the NSF for financial support, and to Oliver Blanchard, Alon Brav, John Campbell (a referee), John Cochrane, Edward Glaeser, J.B. Heaton, Danny Kahneman, David Laibson, Owen Lamont, Drazen Prelec, Jay Ritter (a referee), Ken Singleton, Dick Thaler, an anonymous referee, and the editor, Bill Schwert, for comments.1 (1998)A model of investor sentiment…Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency (1993)Returns to Buying Winners and…The perception of randomness (1991)The perception of randomnessDo Biases in Probability Judgment Matter in Markets? Experimental Evidence (1987)Do Biases in Probability Judg…Does the Stock Market Overreact? (1985)Does the Stock Market Overrea…Measuring Utility by a Single-Response Sequential Method (1964) (1974)Measuring Utility by a Single…Belief in the law of small numbers. (1971)Belief in the law of small nu…A model of investor sentiment /A model of investor sentiment…Can firms see into the future? Survey evidence from Germany (2017)Can firms see into the future…Extrapolative Beliefs in Perceptual and Economic Decisions: Evidence of a Common Mechanism (2016)Extrapolative Beliefs in Perc…Decision-Making under the Gambler's Fallacy: Evidence from Asylum Judges, Loan Officers, and Baseball Umpires (2016)Decision-Making under the Gam…PREDICTING LOTTO NUMBERS: A NATURAL EXPERIMENT ON THE GAMBLER'S FALLACY AND THE HOT-HAND FALLACY (2015)PREDICTING LOTTO NUMBERS: A N…Inferring Quality from Wait Time (2015)Inferring Quality from Wait T…How return and risk experiences shape investor beliefs and preferences (2015)How return and risk experienc…Hot hand and gambler's fallacy in teams: Evidence from investment experiments (2015)Hot hand and gambler's fallac…Behavioral finance: insights from experiments II: biases, moods and emotions (2015)Behavioral finance: insights …Would you Pay for Transparently Useless Advice? A Test of Boundaries of Beliefs in The Folly of Predictions (2014)Would you Pay for Transparent…Experiments on Expectations in Macroeconomics and Finance (2014)Experiments on Expectations i…Warmth and conformity: The effects of ambient temperature on product preferences and financial decisions (2013)Warmth and conformity: The ef…Streaks in Earnings Surprises and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns (2012)Streaks in Earnings Surprises…Modeling the Change of Paradigm: Non-Bayesian Reactions to Unexpected News (2012)Modeling the Change of Paradi…Consecutive Earnings Surprises: Small and Large Trader Reactions (2012)Consecutive Earnings Surprise…Demand Forecasting Behavior: System Neglect and Change Detection (2011)Demand Forecasting Behavior: …The Gambler's and Hot-Hand Fallacies: Theory and Applications (2009)The Gambler's and Hot-Hand Fa…Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests (1973)The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns (1992)Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies (1996)On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance (1997)Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading (1985)Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors (2000)Boys will be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment (2001)The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, by John Maynard Keynes (1936)The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. (1936)Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. (1984)CAPITAL ASSET PRICES: A THEORY OF MARKET EQUILIBRIUM UNDER CONDITIONS OF RISK* (1964)Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds (1993)Market efficiency, long-term returns, and behavioral finance1The comments of Brad Barber, David Hirshleifer, S.P. Kothari, Owen Lamont, Mark Mitchell, Hersh Shefrin, Robert Shiller, Rex Sinquefield, Richard Thaler, Theo Vermaelen, Robert Vishny, Ivo Welch, and a referee have been helpful. Kenneth French and Jay Ritter get special thanks.1 (1998)Capital markets research in accounting (2001)Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1974)Integración de los mercados financieros Latinoamericanos por medio de MILA (2020)Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1975)In Search of Attention (2011)Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability (1973)The Cross‐Section of Volatility and Expected Returns (2006)All That Glitters: The Effect of Attention and News on the Buying Behavior of Individual and Institutional Investors (2007)Disagreement and the Stock Market (2007)Ambiguity, Information Quality, and Asset Pricing (2008)Benchmarks as Limits to Arbitrage: Understanding the Low Volatility Anomaly (2010)Reversals of preference between bids and choices in gambling decisions. (1971)On the Shape of the Probability Weighting Function (1999)Experimental Tests of the Endowment Effect and the Coase Theorem (2000)
this work references cited by second hop· second hop is a sample of the most-cited connections

References

  • 1993Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency11,575 cited
  • 1985Does the Stock Market Overreact?7,569 cited
  • 1998Investor Psychology and Security Market Under‐ and Overreactions5,711 cited
  • n.d.A model of investor sentiment /4,073 cited
  • 1999A Unified Theory of Underreaction, Momentum Trading, and Overreaction in Asset Markets4,018 cited
  • 1971Belief in the law of small numbers.3,244 cited
  • 1998A model of investor sentiment1We are grateful to the NSF for financial support, and to Oliver Blanchard, Alon Brav, John Campbell (a referee), John Cochrane, Edward Glaeser, J.B. Heaton, Danny Kahneman, David Laibson, Owen Lamont, Drazen Prelec, Jay Ritter (a referee), Ken Singleton, Dick Thaler, an anonymous referee, and the editor, Bill Schwert, for comments.12,865 cited
  • 2000Bad News Travels Slowly: Size, Analyst Coverage, and the Profitability of Momentum Strategies2,639 cited
  • 1974Measuring Utility by a Single-Response Sequential Method (1964)1,540 cited
  • 2015A Survey of Behavioral Finance1,220 cited
  • 2002Inference by Believers in the Law of Small Numbers671 cited
  • 2002Rational Momentum Effects499 cited
  • 2000Competing Theories of Financial Anomalies468 cited
  • 1991The perception of randomness402 cited

Only edges whose both ends are imported exist here. Widen the year window, or show the whole map. Back to the work

  • 2005The Gambler’s Fallacy and the Hot Hand: Empirical Data from Casinos373 cited
  • 1987Do Biases in Probability Judgment Matter in Markets? Experimental Evidence308 cited
  • Cited by

    • 2009The Gambler's and Hot-Hand Fallacies: Theory and Applications381 cited
    • 2011Demand Forecasting Behavior: System Neglect and Change Detection141 cited
    • 2012Modeling the Change of Paradigm: Non-Bayesian Reactions to Unexpected News132 cited
    • 2013Warmth and conformity: The effects of ambient temperature on product preferences and financial decisions112 cited
    • 2015How return and risk experiences shape investor beliefs and preferences112 cited
    • 2015Inferring Quality from Wait Time111 cited
    • 2014Experiments on Expectations in Macroeconomics and Finance101 cited
    • 2015PREDICTING LOTTO NUMBERS: A NATURAL EXPERIMENT ON THE GAMBLER'S FALLACY AND THE HOT-HAND FALLACY85 cited
    • 2012Streaks in Earnings Surprises and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns83 cited
    • 2015Hot hand and gambler's fallacy in teams: Evidence from investment experiments80 cited
    • 2012Consecutive Earnings Surprises: Small and Large Trader Reactions62 cited
    • 2015Behavioral finance: insights from experiments II: biases, moods and emotions61 cited
    • 2016Extrapolative Beliefs in Perceptual and Economic Decisions: Evidence of a Common Mechanism57 cited
    • 2017Can firms see into the future? Survey evidence from Germany57 cited
    • 2016Decision-Making under the Gambler's Fallacy: Evidence from Asylum Judges, Loan Officers, and Baseball Umpires56 cited
    • 2014Would you Pay for Transparently Useless Advice? A Test of Boundaries of Beliefs in The Folly of Predictions55 cited