Impact of budget deficits on ex post real long-term interest rates

Richard J. Cebula

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Monetary Policy and Economic Impact Fiscal Policies and Political Economy Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth

Abstract

The study investigates the impact of budget deficits on ex post real long-term interest rates over the 1973–1995 period, thereby addressing an interest rate measure and time period, i.e. beyond the mid-to late-1980s, that have received only limited attention in the literature. The instrumented variables (IV) estimate provides strong evidence that budget deficits do raise the long-term real ex post rate of interest.

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1987Journal of monetary economics 2016Do Large Deficits Produce High Interest Rates 1986New Evidence on Deficits and Interest Rates 1983Long- and short-term interest rates in a risky world 1983Federal Borrowing and Short Term Interest Rates 1983Real Interest, Money Surprises, Anticipated Inflation and Fiscal Deficits 1955The 1955 Economic Report of the President 1984DO FEDERAL DEFICITS REALLY MATTER?

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2005THE BUDGET DEFICIT AND ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE: A SURVEY 2003Recent and Prospective Trends in Real Long-Term Interest Rates 1984Fiscal Policy and Interest Rates∗2012The Nexus between Budget Deficit and Inflation in the Nigerian Economy (1980 - 2009)

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