Bus Dwell Time Modeling Using Gene Expression Programming

Soroush Rashidi · Prakash Ranjitkar

41 citations0/0 files storedComputer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering

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Transportation Planning and Optimization Traffic control and management Traffic Prediction and Management Techniques

Abstract

This article proposes a gene expression programming (GEP)-based approach to model and estimate bus dwell time (BDT) as an alternative to the more commonly used multiple linear regression (MLR) model. The proposed model is calibrated and validated using the data collected from 22 bus stops in Auckland and compared against the MLR model based on five different performance measures namely: mean error, mean absolute error, root mean square error, mean absolute percentage error, and R2 value. The proposed GEP-based approach shows prospects to estimate BDT more accurately and overcome some of the issues associated with the MLR method, including the restrictions to stick with a predefined model form and the need to satisfy assumptions made on multicollinearity, homoscedasticity, and the normality of random error, which are often difficult to satisfy in real world applications.

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References

2002Model-Dependent Variance Inflation Factor Cutoff Values 2001The valuation of reliability for personal travel 2003Transit capacity and quality of service manual 2009Using GPS Data to Gain Insight into Public Transport Travel Time Variability 2004Determinants of Bus Dwell Time 199473rd annual meeting of the transportation research board 1983ANALYZING TRANSIT TRAVEL TIME PERFORMANCE 2003Estimation of Bus Dwell Times with Automatic Passenger Counter Information

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