EVALUATION OF EXTENSION AND USDA PRICE AND PRODUCTION FORECASTS

Abstract

This study evaluates Extension forecasting accuracy in an analysis of responses to the Annual Outlook Survey conducted by the American Agricultural Economics Association from 1983 through 1995. Representative and composite production and price forecasts for several commodities are examined. Extension forecasts are compared with USDA, naive, and futures-based forecasts. Relationships between forecast/forecaster features and accuracy are examined in a regression framework. Composite forecasts are more accurate than representative forecasts. Generally, Extension forecasts are less accurate than USDA forecasts for crops, but more accurate for beef production and price. Forecasters who rely more heavily on formal econometric models are slightly more accurate than those who do not.

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