Numerical and verbal decision analysis: comparison on practical cases

Oleg I. Larichev · Rex V. Brown

48 citations0/0 files storedJournal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

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Multi-Criteria Decision Making Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics Decision Support System Applications

Abstract

Numerical decision analysis (NDA), derived from statistical decision theory, is very well known. Verbal decision analysis (VDA), oriented towards so-called unstructured problems, where the qualitative and uncertain factors dominate, is a newer direction in decision theory and practice. Verbal and numerical decision analyses (DAs) have been compared in an experimental setting, with groups of students. This paper presents the results of a comparison in the context of live practical tasks. Both approaches were attempted on two comparable choices, facing both Russian and US government agencies, involving a choice between oil and gas transportation options. The resulting methodological insights are generalized into a systematic comparison of the strong and weak features of each approach. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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References

1985The Analytic Hierarchy Process 1994Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Tradeoffs.1986Decision analysis and behavioral research 1996Multicriteria Methodology for Decision Aiding 1997Multicriteria Methodology for Decision Aiding 1983The Art and Science of Negotiation 2000Analytic Hierarchy Process 1990Verbal versus numerical probabilities: Efficiency, biases, and the preference paradox

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