Stability of a Model Explaining Selected Extramusical Influences on Solo and Small-Ensemble Festival Ratings

Abstract

This is the third study in a line of inquiry whose purpose has been to develop a theoretical model of selected extramusical variables' influence on solo and small-ensemble festival ratings. Authors of the second of these (Bergee & McWhirter, 2005) had used binomial logistic regression as the basis for their model formulation strategy. Their final model included as statistically significant variables time of day (morning/afternoon), type of event (solo/ensemble), performing medium (vocal/instrumental), school size classification (Larger/smaller), district level of expenditure per average daily attendance (high/middle/low), and type of event by performing medium interaction. For the present study, we examined the stability of their model for a different data set (the following year's ratings) by means of a similar but modified strategy. Among other modifications, we used multinomial instead of binomial logistic regression. Utimately, the present study's model converged strongly on Bergee and Mc Whirter's preliminary one. Time of day, type of event, school size, district expenditure per average daily attendance, geographical district (metropolitan/nonmetropolitan), and the time of day by geographical district interaction contributed significantly to the present study's multinomial model. Theoretical modeling thus far suggests that performing as a soloist later in the day and entering from a large, metropolitan-area, relatively high-expenditure school serve as success influences. The multinomial model showed a gradation of influences from ratings of I through II to < III.

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