Does the Creation of Majority Black Districts Aid Republicans? An Analysis of the 1992 Congressional Elections in Eight Southern States

Abstract

This article asks a relatively simple question: does the creation of majority black electoral districts in the South aid Republicans? Given the post-1990 reapportionment of state legislative and congressional districts, and the zeal with which Sections Two and Five of the Voting Rights Act have been enforced by Republican Justice Departments, this is a timely question. The rise in the electoral fortunes of southern Republicans in the past decade also demands an answer to this question. Using electoral and district-level census data for the congressional districts of eight southern states in the 1990 and 1992 elections, this article found that, of the nine seats taken by the Republicans in 1992, four were due to the creation of majority black districts. Further, the following analysis finds that several previously uncompetitive Democratically held districts were made competitive by the creation of majority black districts, and can be expected to swing Republican in the next few years, especially given further acceleration of retirements by white Democratic incumbents.

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