Individual and Societal Risk Assessment for a Petroleum Oil Storage Terminal

Abstract

This paper presents an assessment of individual and societal risk associated with the effects of explosions and fires in the petroleum oil storage terminal of Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOCL), Jaipur, India, that occurred on October 29, 2009. Eleven fatalities and a property loss of approximately U.S. $60 million were reported. The maximum risk level at a distance of around 100 m from the release point is 10−4 per year. The next risk level, i.e., 10−5 per year is at a distance of 280 m within the terminal boundary. This paper demonstrates that the individual risk inside the terminal for various categories of personnel is in the range of 10−5 to 10−6 per year. Moreover, F/N curve (where N is the number of fatalities, and F is the frequency of N or more fatalities) indicating societal risk is in the so-called as low as reasonably practicable region. Thus the total risk at the terminal does not lie in the unacceptable region, but in the as low as reasonably practicable region where substantial measures for a risk reduction were needed. The consequences in and around the terminal were high, which might be due to the failure or absence of certain precautionary measures. The paper is useful to assess the fire and explosion risk of a petroleum oil storage terminal to avoid major accidents.

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