Projecting population mortality for Ireland

Shane F. Whelan

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Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management Statistical Methods in Epidemiology Global Health Care Issues

Abstract

Mortality data for Ireland is analysed, for recent and long-run trends, and several methods of projecting mortality rates are outlined and the results compared.Interpretation of the results suggests that it is not unreasonable to forecast that males born in calendar year 2006 have a life expectancy of 91 years (females 93 years).On the same basis, males aged 65 years in calendar year 2006 can be expected to live another 20 years on average (females 23 years).The uncertainty surrounding the forecasts is outlined.

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