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Exaggerated risk: Prospect theory and probability weighting in risky choice.
16 references·16 citing·30 second hopsampled
Exaggerated risk: Prospect theory and probability weighting in risky choice. (2009)Exaggerated risk: Prospect theory and pro…Theory of games and economic behavior (2019)Theory of games and economic …Choices, Values, and Frames (2013)Choices, Values, and FramesDecisions from Experience and the Effect of Rare Events in Risky Choice (2004)Decisions from Experience and…A perspective on judgment and choice: Mapping bounded rationality. (2003)A perspective on judgment and…The Probability Weighting Function (1998)The Probability Weighting Fun…Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty (1992)Advances in prospect theory: …Preference and belief: Ambiguity and competence in choice under uncertainty (1991)Preference and belief: Ambigu…Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk (1988)Prospect theory: An analysis …Perception of Risk (1987)Perception of RiskProspect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk (1979)Prospect Theory: An Analysis …Risk Aversion in the Small and in the Large (1976)Risk Aversion in the Small an…Design and Analysis: A Researcher's Handbook (1976)Design and Analysis: A Resear…Design and Analysis: A Researcher's Handbook (1975)Design and Analysis: A Resear…Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability (1973)Availability: A heuristic for…Risk Aversion in the Small and in the Large (1964)Risk Aversion in the Small an…Theory of Games and Economic Behavior (1946)Theory of Games and Economic …Worries of the poor: The impact of financial burden on the risk attitudes of micro-entrepreneurs (2019)Worries of the poor: The impa…Flood insurance demand and probability weighting: The influences of regret, worry, locus of control and the threshold of concern heuristic (2019)Flood insurance demand and pr…Childhood exposure to the Second World War and financial risk taking in adult life (2019)Childhood exposure to the Sec…Noisy preferences in risky choice: A cautionary note. (2017)Noisy preferences in risky ch…Dynamic Insurance Decision-Making for Rare Events: The Role of Emotions (2017)Dynamic Insurance Decision-Ma…Emotions and Decisions (2016)Emotions and DecisionsDoes the Dark Triad of Personality Predict Corrupt Intention? The Mediating Role of Belief in Good Luck (2016)Does the Dark Triad of Person…The Influence of Affect on Heuristic Thinking in Insurance Demand (2015)The Influence of Affect on He…Behavioral insurance: Theory and experiments (2014)Behavioral insurance: Theory …Feeling the Numbers: On the Interplay Between Risk, Affect, and Numeracy (2013)Feeling the Numbers: On the I…Discriminating among probability weighting functions using adaptive design optimization (2013)Discriminating among probabil…Losses loom more likely than gains: Propensity to imagine losses increases their subjective probability (2012)Losses loom more likely than …How different are real and hypothetical decisions? Overestimation, contrast and assimilation in social interaction (2012)How different are real and hy…Neural dynamics of affect, gist, probability, and choice (2011)Neural dynamics of affect, gi…Measurement for the Social Sciences: The C-OAR-SE Method and Why It Must Replace Psychometrics (2010)Measurement for the Social Sc…Domain Effects and Financial Risk Attitudes (2010)Domain Effects and Financial …Belief in the law of small numbers. (1971)Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness (1972)On the psychology of prediction. (1973)Telling more than we can know: Verbal reports on mental processes. (1977)Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1975)Loss Aversion in Riskless Choice: A Reference-Dependent Model (1991)Individual differences in reasoning: Implications for the rationality debate? 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(1999)Behavioral Decision Theory (1961)Judgment under Uncertainty (1982)The Social Amplification of Risk: A Conceptual Framework (1988)Risk as Analysis and Risk as Feelings: Some Thoughts about Affect, Reason, Risk, and Rationality (2004)Using social and behavioural science to support COVID-19 pandemic response (2020)Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms (1961)Exploration and Exploitation in Organizational Learning (1991)Explicating dynamic capabilities: the nature and microfoundations of (sustainable) enterprise performance (2007)G*Power 3: A flexible statistical power analysis program for the social, behavioral, and biomedical sciences (2007)Effect size estimates: Current use, calculations, and interpretation. (2011)Calculating and reporting effect sizes to facilitate cumulative science: a practical primer for t-tests and ANOVAs (2013)Toward a positive theory of consumer choice (1980)Non-cooperative games (1989)On the measurement of inequality (1970)THE VALUATION OF RISK ASSETS AND THE SELECTION OF RISKY INVESTMENTS IN STOCK PORTFOLIOS AND CAPITAL BUDGETS**This paper is another in a series of interrelated theoretical and statistical studies of corporate financial and investment policies being made under grants from the Rockefeller Foundation, and more recently the Ford Foundation, to the Harvard Business School. The generous support for this work is most gratefully acknowledged. The author is also much indebted to his colleagues Professors Bishop, Christenson, Kahr, Raiffa, and (especially) Schlaifer, for extensive discussion and commentary on an earlier draft of this paper; but responsibility for any errors or imperfections remains strictly his own.[Professor Sharpe's paper, “Capital Asset Prices: A Theory of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions of Risk” (Journal of Finance, September 1964) appeared after this paper was in final form and on its way to the printers. My first section, which parallels the first half of his paper (with corresponding conclusions), sets the algebraic framework for sections II, III and VI, (which have no counterpart in his paper) and for section IV on the equilibrium prices of risk assets, concerning which our results differ significantly for reasons which will be explored elsewhere. Sharpe does not take up the capital budgeting problem developed in section V below.] (1975)The arbitrage theory of capital asset pricing (1976)
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References

  • 1979Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk48,459 cited
  • 1988Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk32,475 cited
  • 2019Theory of games and economic behavior16,630 cited
  • 1992Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty15,457 cited
  • 1973Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability9,980 cited
  • 1987Perception of Risk9,263 cited
  • 1975Design and Analysis: A Researcher's Handbook5,822 cited
  • 2003A perspective on judgment and choice: Mapping bounded rationality.5,537 cited
  • 2013Choices, Values, and Frames5,320 cited
  • 1964Risk Aversion in the Small and in the Large4,964 cited
  • 1976Risk Aversion in the Small and in the Large4,655 cited
  • 1946Theory of Games and Economic Behavior3,280 cited
  • 1976Design and Analysis: A Researcher's Handbook2,012 cited
  • 1998The Probability Weighting Function1,998 cited
  • 1991Preference and belief: Ambiguity and competence in choice under uncertainty1,705 cited
  • 2004Decisions from Experience and the Effect of Rare Events in Risky Choice

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  • 2019Worries of the poor: The impact of financial burden on the risk attitudes of micro-entrepreneurs83 cited
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  • 2016Does the Dark Triad of Personality Predict Corrupt Intention? The Mediating Role of Belief in Good Luck81 cited
  • 2012Losses loom more likely than gains: Propensity to imagine losses increases their subjective probability75 cited
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  • 2019Childhood exposure to the Second World War and financial risk taking in adult life73 cited
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  • 2014Behavioral insurance: Theory and experiments48 cited
  • 2017Noisy preferences in risky choice: A cautionary note.46 cited
  • 2017Dynamic Insurance Decision-Making for Rare Events: The Role of Emotions46 cited
  • 2010Domain Effects and Financial Risk Attitudes43 cited
  • 2015The Influence of Affect on Heuristic Thinking in Insurance Demand39 cited
  • 2011Neural dynamics of affect, gist, probability, and choice36 cited
  • 2019Flood insurance demand and probability weighting: The influences of regret, worry, locus of control and the threshold of concern heuristic36 cited