CONSUMERS' INFLATION EXPECTATIONS AND MONETARY POLICY IN EUROPE

Jan Marc Berk

29 citations0/0 files storedContemporary Economic Policy

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Monetary Policy and Economic Impact Economic theories and models European Monetary and Fiscal Policies

Abstract

This article analyses the effects of monetary policy decisions on inflation expectations of European consumers. Using a novel approach, I convert qualitative survey responses of consumers in various European countries into a quantitative time series of inflation expectations. I investigate the effects of unanticipated movements in interest rates and inflation on inflation expectations across European countries. I inter alia seek to explore whether the reaction differs of consumers in countries with more credible central banks than those in less credible countries.

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References

1987Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing 1977Rules Rather than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans 1995Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models 1972Expectations and the neutrality of money 1983A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model 1981A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural-Rate Model 1980Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis 2001Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market

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2004Imperfect rationality and inflationary inertia: a new estimation of the Phillips Curve for Brazil 2006Consumer Inflation Expectations: Survey Questions and Quantification Methods - the Case of Poland 2007Are Survey-Based Inflation Expections in the Euro Area Informative?2015How to Define the Consumer Perceived Price Index? An Application to Polish Data 2012Non-Positive Scaling Factor in Probability Quantification Methods: Deriving Consumer Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in the Whole Euro Area and Ireland

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