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Analysts’ Forecast Accuracy in Germany: The Effect of Different Accounting Principles and Changes of Accounting Principles

Jürgen Ernstberger · Simon Krotter · Christian Stadler

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Auditing, Earnings Management, Governance Accounting Theory and Financial Reporting Forecasting Techniques and Applications

Abstract

Abstract This paper assesses the influence of an adoption of IAS/IFRS or US GAAP on the financial analysts’ forecast accuracy in a homogenous institutional framework. Our findings suggest that the forecast accuracy is higher for estimates based on IFRS or US GAAP data than for forecasts based on German GAAP data. Moreover, in the year of switching from German GAAP to US GAAP the forecast accuracy is lower than in other years. The paper contributes to prior research by providing evidence about the usefulness of international accounting data and about the adoption effects of a change to such accounting principles.

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References

2001Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data 1983Limited-dependent and qualitative variables in econometrics 1996Causes and Consequences of Earnings Manipulation: An Analysis of Firms Subject to Enforcement Actions by the SEC*2008International Accounting Standards and Accounting Quality 1999Earnings Management to Exceed Thresholds 1996Corporate Disclosure Policy and Analyst Behavior.2006Estimating Standard Errors in Finance Panel Data Sets: Comparing Approaches 2000The Economic Consequences of Increased Disclosure

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2009Mandatory Adoption of IFRS and Analysts’ Forecasts: How Much Does Enforcement Matter?2010The impact of IFRS on financial analysts' forecast accuracy in the Asia‐Pacific region 2013The Case for Global Accounting Standards: Arguments and Evidence 2011An Investigation of the Relationship between Use of International Accounting Standards and Source of Company Finance in G ermany 2015The persistence of international accounting differences as measured on transition to IFRS

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