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Dynamic Bayesian Forecasting of Presidential Elections in the States
16 references·10 citing·36 second hop
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References

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  • 1981Sociotropic Politics: The American Case1,525 cited
  • n.d.PS : political science & politics1,230 cited
  • 1993Why Are American Presidential Election Campaign Polls So Variable When Votes Are So Predictable?847 cited
  • 2008The Economic Vote826 cited
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  • 2008The Economic Vote: How Political and Economic Institutions Condition Election Results698 cited
  • 1993Reexamining the "Minimal Effects" Model in Recent Presidential Campaigns412 cited
  • 2001National Economic Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections362 cited
  • 2010The message matters: the economy and presidential campaigns318 cited
  • 2005The Total Survey Error Approach: A Guide to the New Science of Survey Research281 cited
  • 1993Forecasting elections275 cited
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  • 1983Forecasting Presidential Elections239 cited
  • 2003Voter Decision Making in Election 2000: Campaign Effects, Partisan Activation, and the Clinton Legacy

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227 cited

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  • 2014No! Formal Theory, Causal Inference, and Big Data Are Not Contradictory Trends in Political Science75 cited
  • 2018Estimating Smooth Country–Year Panels of Public Opinion64 cited
  • 2017Improving election prediction internationally56 cited
  • 2015The wisdom of crowds: Applying Condorcet’s jury theorem to forecasting US presidential elections52 cited
  • 2016A Predictive Test of Voters' Economic Benchmarking: The 2013 German Bundestag Election52 cited
  • 2014Combining forecasts for elections: Accurate, relevant, and timely41 cited
  • 2020Information, incentives, and goals in election forecasts31 cited
  • 2013The Five Vs of Big Data Political Science Introduction to the Virtual Issue on Big Data in Political Science Political Analysis26 cited
  • 2019Show me your friends, and I will tell you whom you vote for16 cited