Economic growth and terrorism: domestic, international, and suicide

Abstract

This study evaluates the controversial issue of whether economic growth exerts a dampening effect on terrorism. Unlike previous studies, it conceptualizes economic growth into two sectors (agricultural and industrial) and categorizes terrorism into three forms (domestic, international, and suicide). It offers a modified theory of hard targets, where richer industrial, but not richer agricultural, countries are more likely to attract suicide attacks. A cross-national, time-series data analysis of 127 countries for 1970–2007 shows evidence that when countries enjoy high levels of industrial growth, they are less disposed to domestic and international terrorist events, but are more likely to experience suicide attacks. These findings indicate that economic growth is not a cure-all solution for terrorism because it may be associated in some instances with more terrorist incidents. Nonetheless, healthy economic conditions are, without doubt, beneficial to the war on terrorism because the majority of suicide attacks occur in only a few countries.

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