Deterministic Modeling without (Unwarranted) Apology

Abstract

Abstract The risk literature in agricultural economics asserts that deterministic methods ignore important sources of uncertainty, and thus strongly discourages their use to model economic behavior, performance, and welfare. This paper applies principles of randomness drawn from the philosophy of science literature to investigate this assertion and to formulate proper implications for the appropriate use of deterministic methods under uncertainty. The results specify the circumstances under which a deterministic approach offers a scientifically credible alternative to a probabilistic approach in accounting for uncertainty.

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